Week 28 – half way point review

Week 28 Results
Week 28 Results

Ok, I’ve managed to get the blog up to date for week ending 19th March 2017. I’ve now passed the halfway marker, so perhaps now would be a good time to sit and take stock.

As the yield curve shows, it’s certainly been a game of two halves as far as the first six months are concerned! Fortunately, the first half score was a lot higher than I conceded during the second half, so the net position looks like:

  • Starting Bank: £1,500
  • Current Bank: £5,504
  • Gross Increase: £4,004
  • Annualised Yield: 479%

I’ve been trying to dissect exactly what could account for the difference between the performance of the two halves. It’s difficult to say for certain: because I have done this in my limited spare time, I have not maintained a full record of every bet placed and so I don’t have extensive data to analyse against for sure. However, I think the reasoning falls into the three categories below:

  1. Loss of Bet365 account
  2. Number of bets placed
  3. Variance

Loss of Bet365 account

A key defining point between the two halves  of the 6 months was the the point at which my Bet365 account was restricted – ostensibly for winning too much!! There are plenty of other bookmakers, right?! What’s the issue, you ask?

The answer is straightforward and, I promise you, I’m not employed by Bet365 – this is simply the truth of the matter… when they actually allow you to stake, Bet365 is the best bookmaker I have come across. Without exception. Best range of markets. Best range of fixtures. Market leading odds. Best mobile website. Best introductory offer.

It is specifically the range of markets and fixtures which makes it so popular amongst the professional tipping community, simply because it’s a lot easier to find markets that are in some way mispriced and therefore offer an opportunity to profit.

A key example is that of a horse racing tipster that I made a lot of profit out of. He provided a lot of tips the evening before race days and (at the time, at least) Bet365 were the only ones to carry such high odds for the provided selections. Once I lost the free use of the account, therein ended my ability to stake his tips, and I had to move away.

Similarly, the majority of the most profitable tipsters will consistently use Bet365 because of the value to be found, particularly in some of the more obscure markets which few, if any, other bookmakers offer. When it comes to Tibetan women’s football, for example, it’s pretty easy for somebody somewhere in the world to become more of an expert than the bookmaker who has set the opening odds for the event.

Now, I always knew I would have to graduate from Bet365 (and most mainstream bookmakers) ultimately. Therefore, I chose to take it as an opportunity to move to a sustainable footing outside of the the mainstream bookmaking community. There are a few very good options in this space, the most essential of which I have detailed on the Resources page. The main one I chose to start using heavily was Pinnacle, as they focus on volume, have the lowest margins and do not limit winning players. The down side is that this is where the shrewd bettors play and therefore there is more and smarter money chasing the same edge – bettors here are naturally larger stakers.

However, for someone trying to put in place a long term sustainable betting strategy, Pinnacle is an essential place to have an account – and so persevere, I must!

Number of bets placed

Somewhat tied into the loss of the Bet365 account, options for professional tipsters who you can follow also become substantively more restricted outside the world of Bet365. Again, you may think this sounds odd – after all, there are hundreds of different bookmaker options available. Alas, none has such a range of markets and therefore fewer value betting options, particularly due to there being fewer very obscure fixtures.

As a result of this, the number of bets and therefore my turnover has decreased somewhat. This directly feeds in to absolute returns and so a lower growth rate is to be expected.

Variance

In addition to, or simply as opposed to the above, I may simply be looking at an extended period of adverse variance. I made the point during the first 3 months of this experiment that I was astounded by the week-on-week increase and total lack of negative variance. Perhaps the corollary is a longer than desired period of negative variance.

Looking Ahead

On the whole, I can’t help but feel positive about the first 6 months of this money making endeavour. The £120k looks very clearly to now be beyond reach, but that was always a highly ambitious, even audacious, target. My bank growth during the period has been strong and better than any investment or speculation strategy that I can think of.

So, it’s a case of keeping on going, retaining a consistent approach and maintaining discipline. I’ve also been recommended to try a lay horse betting system, called Little Acorns, which has a long term track record of positive gains and low drawdown. I’ll implement it alongside my existing portfolio of tipping services and I’ll update in a few weeks/months how it’s performing for me.

Take care!

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